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“There is a lot of ruby in the U.S. already so there won’t be a shortage right away,” says Benjamin Hakimi of Colorline, New York. “But re-importation is going to be an issue in the short term. It may be difficult for dealers to attend overseas shows. We don’t yet know the enforcement mechanism so it’s difficult to judge the impact.” Although the bill does allow export and re-import of goods for shows in theory, it may not allow gems to be exported to be set in jewelry and re-imported.

Ruby mined in Burma accounts for an estimated 85 percent to 95 percent of the overall ruby market by value. Other ruby producers include Tanzania, Madagascar, Tajikistan, and Malawi. Madagascar, previously the second most important producer, has suspended exports for the past six months so no rough is currently available from that source. A promising new ruby source in Winza, Tanzania, is producing a small amount of high-quality ruby with enviable transparency, including some natural unheated top-quality stones (see “Gem Profile,” page 37).

Production of Nyala ruby from Malawi, medium grade unheated ruby in sizes up to two carats, is expected to increase with a new production plant going online at the Chimwadzulu Hill mine. “With the new plant rough production this winter should increase to 10 to 15 kilos a month,” estimates Eric Braunwart of Columbia Gem House, Vancouver, Washington, who markets the material. “That should be 7,000 to 12,000 carats a month of polished.” The Malawi government certifies the origin of the material.

For jadeite, there are no real alternatives. Aside from a tiny quantity of jadeite mined in Russia and Guatemala, essentially all fine jadeite on the market is mined in Burma. Adding to the market impact, most jadeite dealers and jewelry manufacturers specialize in that gem. If it lasts a substantial amount of time, the ban could have a drastic effect on their businesses.

Jeff Mason of Colorado-based jadeite specialist Mason-Kay says that he has been stockpiling material to offset the initial impact of the ban. “I’d be foolish not to,” he says. “This has been our business for 32 years. Our business will go on as long as it can, hopefully as long as the ban. Although we have a few years of inventory, when we get a call for something we don’t have on hand we won’t be able to get it for the customer. Unlike ruby, there isn’t much jadeite on the market in the U.S.”

Although many things still aren’t clear about how the ban will be enforced, one thing seems clear: Prices for both ruby and jadeite are going to go up. “Obviously, in any market that is cut off from supply, existing goods will go up in value, that’s a no brainer,” Mason says. “We’re waiting to see all the ramifications of the law before we decide how much. But if we can’t replace anything, we’ll have to raise prices. As supplies dwindle, prices will continue to go up.”

If prices in the U.S. market are higher than elsewhere, Mason expects that some wealthy collectors will buy important pieces in other countries rather than pay a significant premium. “Since the bill allows import of single items for personal use, buyers may buy in Asia rather than the U.S.,” Mason says.